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Kenny Omega vs Will Ospreay | In-ring Statistics+Analysis: Wrestle Kingdom 17.

Updated: Mar 16, 2023

Kenny Omega vs Will Ospreay is a dream match that many have been waiting for since the two men started taking jabs at each other during Omega's injury recovery last year. Others have been hoping for this match for even longer.

Today was the day, and the match seems to have been received as well as it possibly could have. As of about 5 hours after the match finished, it's Cagematch rating is 9.83 after 337 votes and it's Grappl rating is 4.92 after 109 votes. This makes it the highest rated match of all time on both those platforms. All that comes with the huge caveat that matches usually fall somewhat as the amount of ratings increases.

Omega vs Ospreay - In-ring Statistics


- Omega outdoes Ospreay almost across the board.

- Ospreay hits back with aerials.

- Ospreay's Strikedown Rate is better than Omega's.

- Omega doubled Ospreay for Grapples and Submission.

- Omega dripped with heel showmanship; almost double the taunts and more than triple the fouls.

Omega vs Ospreay - Flow of Offence Analysis


- The two highest offence minutes were Omega's.

- Ospreay had a 7-minute stretch of 0 offence. (Omega's longest - 2)

- 15 minutes of the match saw Ospreay use 0 offence. (Omega - 8)


- 6 of the 3-minute chunks saw Omega have the advantage. (Ospreay - 3)

- This perspective shows the impact minutes 20 to 26 had on the offence totals.

- 3 of the first 6, three minute chunks saw Ospreay have the advantage in the first 18 minutes.


- This perspective shows how Ospreay clawed back after Omega's fast start.

- It also highlights the sheer costliness of Ospreay's 7 minute flatline.

- You can also see how Omega withstands a threat of an Ospreay comeback late.


- This graph shows more clearly how each man held advantages in different minutes of the match.

- Ospreay's advantages are generally larger than Omega's when he held said advantage.

- Omega's advantages are sometimes huge, but otherwise small and plentiful.

Omega vs Ospreay - Offence Comparison


- Of these metrics, only Dives is in Ospreay's favour; but he doubles Omega.

- Omega doubles or more, Ospreay's totals for Grapples, Submission, Fouls and Taunts.

- Ospreay's strikes were paid respect in this match with a slight Strikedown Rate advantage.

Omega vs Ospreay - The Match


- There's little stopping in this match to collectively sell, only 2 minutes of no action at all is not common for a match of this length.

- This match kept a fairly consistent pace. it had 'ebbs and flows' but they didn't dip too far and the actions didn't seem to spike as the pace was maintained at a high norm.

- 28% 'Big Offence' (minus short submissions or non-strikedown strikes) is high for a 30+ minute match.

Omega vs Ospreay - Context Comparisons

Omega's Wrestle Kingdom Comparisons


- This was Omega's most heelish show in terms of taunts plus fouls.

- His performance was high across the board was rapid, second for strikes (Jericho-brawl essentially), second for grapples (Tana works slower) and equal second for dives (take into account all those injuries).

- Reversals indicate back and forth, so with the 7 minutes of dominance, the rest must have been

Omega vs Okada Comparisons


- Omega and Ospreay wrestled a more spot-focussed match than the counter-based athletic struggles Omega had with Okada.

- Submission holds as a base to fall back on was replaced by an uptick in strike exchanges.

- More grapples were used today than most vs-Okada matches; except the G1 sprint.

Omega vs Ospreay - Context Comparisons

Ospreay's Wrestle Kingdom Comparisons


- This was an incredibly slow and mesured affair for Ospreay, evidenced by the reduced Reversal use.

- You can see the increase in Strikedowns signifying his change in style as of last year.

- This was a dirtier, more showman driven match; check out the taunts and fouls.

Ospreay vs Takagi Comparisons


- Ospreay reduced his usual use of Grapples to help establish Omega's 'Physical Dominance'.

- Dives were down too though, perhaps to be kept to give an upper-hand next time(?).

- His Takagi series really underlines how much he reduced his usual counter for counter style.


I rated this 4.5 stars on Grappl (sorry?), whereas the rest of the world are putting this at the top of their favourite matches list. I was unsure why, but now I think i get it.

I was first drawn into New Japan, Kenny Omega and Will Ospreay due to the athleticism paired with the company's Strong Style roots. The matches were hard hitting but with a state of the art athleticism that I felt elevated the pageantry of wrestling beyond the Wrestlemania style of insisting everything is grand and 'the best' but instead married that to levels of athleticism and competition (at least in appearance) that real sports are driven towards due to the nature of competition.

This match was different in that it was heavily spot and visuals based. Yet it did not lose what drew me into New Japan entirely. It was there, it just wasn't the main focus of this match. But this is my personal perspective and biases and only after a first watch. Let me know what you think after reading me perspective below.


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