AEW Fyter Fest Night 1 Preview - Comparing in-ring statistics
In this article we will look at how the 3 title matches at Fyter Fest Night 1 will unfold based on the past statistics of the wrestlers involved.
To do this we will use their rates of offence, which measures how much a wrestler relies on a form of offence based on how often they use it in an hour of wrestling. To get tis number totals of each offence type are multiplied up to an hourly rate or divided down to an hourly rate depending on ring time.
The numbers in this article are collected from traditional rules 1v1 (or 2v2 in the case of tag teams) matches. Gimmick 1v1 matches do not count towards statistical totals.
TNT Championship - Cody Rhodes(c) vs Jake Hager
As we can see from the two competitors rates of offence in the graphic above, Jake Hager is the man who has packed more offence into his matches thus far in 2020. He leads Cody in all categories with the exception of pins. He has the biggest total rate of offence but does also receive offence at a quicker rate than Cody.
That being said, the most telling statistics will be the total ring time. Cody's traditional 1v1 total in 2020 is 2 hours and 25 minutes longer than Hager's. This is a double edged sword. Cody has had significantly more time in the ring sharpening his tool set. The caveat being that he has also had more time in the ring wearing down his own body.
Will Cody suffer from being more over-worked than Hager or will his superior 2020 experience see him across the line. It seems likely that in an elite sporting contest the man who has been sharpening his toolset will be the one to come out on top, Cody retains.
AEW Women's Championship - Hikaru Shida(c) vs Penelope Ford
Going into this match champion, Hikaru Shida, faces an unpredictable challenge in the form of Penelope Ford. With a lead of 21 minutes in terms of ring time and an undefeated record in 1v1 matches in 2020, Shida will be a difficult mountain to climb.
In this match, the numbers suggest Shida will rely on Strikedowns, Dives and Submissions. Whereas, Ford will rely of quantity of Strikes, big Grapples and most notably illegal offence. Shida has the edge when relying on Reversals and expect to see Ford indulge in Taunts more often. Thus far, Ford in the competitor who has the faster rate of total offence and they are neck and neck for offence concessions.
So what does this all mean? Well Shida has an 8 and 0 record when using a rate of 178 offensive manoeuvres per hour and Ford tends to concede exactly that level of offence, is she the perfect opponent for Shida's skill-set? Where Shida will have to worry is the tendency for Ford to step outside the rules, with that rate of 49 Fouls per hour.
Expect Shida to overcome Ford and extend her impressive winning run well into the second half of 2020.
AEW Tag Championship - Page/Omega(c) vs Best Friends
Best Friends picked up a couple of losses at the beginning of the year, but since then they have amassed a +8 streak. Thus outdoing Page and Omega and even accumulating more 2v2 ring time than the champions.
Statistical advantages in Strikes, Grapples, Dives, Reversing and Tags go to the champions whereas the challengers have strength in Submission. Interestingly, it is Trent and Chuck that tend to break the rules out of the two teams.
The champions have the edge in Offence For but also concede the most Offence Against. That being said they have the superior win/loss record so they are adapt at taking punishment and firing back with their own substantial offensive skills.
This will be a struggle for the Best Friends who may even be forced to stretch the rules to keep up with Omega and Page. Expect to see the Champions retain.
More recent Statistical Analysis of AEW in this 'Wrestling Storytelling with Statistics' article