CPWM #1 - Wrestling Storytelling with Statistics - Relationship between Offence Dif and W/L Records.
Updated: Jul 24, 2020
Craig's Pro Wrestling Musings #1
Wrestling Storytelling with Statistics - Relationship between Offence Difference and Win/Lose Records.
Does getting the lion's share of the total match offence correlate with actually picking up the 'W'? Today we use data from AEW's Male Singles division to find out. The dataset we are using is from all traditional rules 1v1 matches in this division in 2020.
W/L is the competitors win/Loss record in this match type, determined by wins minus losses. Offence Difference is determined by total match offence across all of a competitor's traditional 1v1 singles matches in 2020 minus the offence they have taken in all those matches.
Below this data will be used to tell a story around performance in the ring and the results that brings.
Quadrant One - More Wins than Losses and More Successful Offence than Offence Conceded
These are the wrestlers who everything is going right for in 2020 AEW, they have a positive win/loss record and have been able to dish out more punishment than they have had to endure.
Cody is notable as having a strong record, +10 and a favourable Offence Difference, +61 meaning he has won 10 more matches than he has lost and has used 61 more offensive moves than he has suffered.
Kip Sabian stands out as another notable competitor with a +4 record in traditional 1v1 matches and an Offence Difference of +118, by far the most favourable Offence Difference in AEW. However one could suggest he should be converting this huge offensive speed into more victories as nine wrestlers match or better his win/loss record without nearly as much effort!
Quadrant Two - Less Wins than Losses and More Successful Offence than Offence Conceded
These wrestlers will be frustrated with their outcomes so far in AEW. They are out working their opponents but are unable to convert offence advantage into cold hard victories.
Not many wrestlers are in this category but, for me, it is characterised by Brandon Cutler. Willing, able and tries so hard but just can't find the right formula.
For these wrestlers, it is a tricky spot to be in, the effort is there but the skill isn't quite doing it. Studying their competitors and changing things up is the way forward.
Quadrant Three - Less Wins than Losses and Less Successful Offence than Offence Conceded
These wrestlers are having a hard time in AEW. They are not winning as much as they are losing and they are taking a lot of punishment int he process.
Things are almost more simple for the inhabitants of Quadrant 3 than those in Quadrant 2. They need to make large changes to their game which is arguably easier than having to pick through the minute details of one's performance to find the magic solution.
More gym work, more reps in the ring and improving mental toughness is the way to go for Janela, Ortiz, Kiss et al.
Quadrant Four - More Wins than Losses and Less Successful Offence than Offence Conceded
Are these the lucky ones? Either really smart or really fortuitous? The fourth quadrant is filled with wrestlers with positive win/lose records but have conceded more offence than they have dished out. These guys are winning but it's punishing.
The most fascinating part of analysing this quadrant is that the AEW World Champion Jon Moxley is very much a part of it. With a +12 W/L at the time of putting this graph together and a Offence Difference of -40, Jon Moxley is winning but doing it the hard way.
Competitors here, must not get carried away with their success in the win's column. Can they really keep up this kind of pattern? Will they crash and burn? Or is it the ploy of sucking their opponents in to counter punch?
Of course this data can be used to examine the booking patterns of the wrestling company as well. We see who is being booked to win strong; Cody, MJF and Sabian. We see who is being made to look enterprising in defeat; Cutler, Stunt and Santana. We see who is losing and giving a lot to their opponents; Janela, Kiss and Ortiz. And finally, we see who is winning with underdog performances; Moxley, Allin and Omega.
Please note these statistics are not black and white. Archer gives up offence to his opponents but this is used to make him look unstoppable as he invites strikes and laughs in his opponents faces. Whereas Marko Stunt is the opposite, utilising frantic strikes anytime he has the advantage to play up the idea that he must take advantage of any opportunity as the underdog.