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7-22-2020
AEW has been running weekly shows for over ten months now. During that time they have been keeping an accurate win/loss record for their performers. Looking ahead to the future I am going to make an educated guess as to who will be the first male performer with 50 wins.
In my opinion there are three leaders in the race for 50 wins. Kenny Omega (29 career wins), Cody (22 wins) and Scorpio Sky (22 wins). There are several factors that will contribute to more wins. First, the acquisition or loss of a championship. Omega and Cody currently hold titles (Tag and TNT respectively). They continue to be champions because they, quite simply, win their matches. Cody has a slight advantage in that he is committed to an open challenge every week. The Mega Cowboys shaky relationship combined with Omega’s shaky mental state could spell the end of their championship reign before the summer is out. Scorpio Sky has been on a win streak of late and if he can find himself in the TNT title picture he could overtake Cody in win totals. Still, as of now Cody has the momentum as far as being a fighting champion.
One thing that can derail a win streak faster than any booking is an injury. These are hard to predict as something as simple as a botched arm drag could put someone on the shelf for months. Higher risk moves such as dives carry more risk so let us look at the three performers and their dive rates. Cody has a dive per hour (d/h) of 7.0, Omega has a d/h of 1.5, and Scopio Sky has a d/h of 2.0. I was surprised to see Cody with a large lead in d/h over the other two. I wouldn’t call him reckless, but his face still bears the scar from a head-first dive back at Full Gear. We also should remember how he broke his foot from a moonsault off the top of a cage back in February. Cody’s dives may catch up to him which would slow down his momentum. In the ability to avoid injury, Omega and Sky are tied in my opinion.
Looking at just these two factors, I feel confident in predicting that Kenny Omega will be the first AEW wrestler with 50 overall wins. He has a decent lead in overall wins (32% higher) and even if he should lose the Tag Championship, he may find himself in the World title picture which could add even more wins. He’s currently averaging 3 wins/month so we could see the 50 win barrier broken sometime around February of 2021.
Agree or disagree? Comment below. While I focused on these three competitors someone else on the roster could surprise us.