To preview AEW's Double or Nothing 2021, the first AEW PPV with a full house since the start of the pandemic a year ago, we are using statistics collated from 106 1v1 or 2v2 matches featured on AEW Dynamite, PPV or Women's Tournament in 2021. Check out the full document, here.
Below you fill find comparisons of how each competitor wrestles using a 'per hour' rate of how often they utilise each in-ring metric to flatten any ring time differences. Each 1v1, 2v2 and the 3-way match have been compared.
Lance Archer vs Miro - TNT Championship Match
While the numbers give Archer and advantage in strikedowns, he hasn’t gone up against the Bulgarian Beast before. Likewise, the submission skills of Miro may not be enough to overcome the Murderhawk Monster. It’s an interesting dynamic where both competitors have made short work of past opponents, but now they’re facing opposition that in many ways is a mirror image of themselves. Archer does go to the top rope more while Miro focuses on the ground and pound approach.
Hikaru Shida vs Britt Baker - AEW Women's World Championship Match
The momentum is on the side of Britt Baker as she’s been on a roll despite her high-profile loss to Thunder Rosa a few weeks back. Shida’s reign may be remembered as “the one during the pandemic” and this would be unfair to her as a performer. She faced a diverse array of opponents and helped oversee the Japanese portion of the women’s tournament. I would say at least two of her title defences (Nyla Rosa, Ryo Mizunami) were as good as any other championship match this past year.
Shida has the advantage on strikes and strikedown rate. I was surprised that submission times were as close as they were, the edge goes to Baker as she has shown that she can end matches with her Lockjaw hold. Where Baker really excels is in dirty tactics. She may have the edge in submissions and reversals, but if neither of those are enough to put away Shida the good doctor will cheat. If that first round of cheating fails there’s always Rebel (not Reba) lurking about to tip the scales.
By Tim Morehouse.
Adam Page vs Brian Cage
I hope that Hangman Page doesn't mind getting tossed around like a rag doll because that’s exactly what Brian Cage specialises in. With a 81-21 grapple advantage, it’s one of the larger disparities between competitors on the entire Double or Nothing card. Luckily Hangman counters with high-risk dives to offset the imbalance.
'American Dream' Cody Rhodes vs Anthony Ogogo
Ogogo, despite having a fair amount of hype entering this match, is still mostly unknown. We know he’s a striker (and a taunter) but is there any more depth beyond that? I’m hoping he’s going to blow the crowd away an offer up some surprises.
I like how Cody can work a match regardless of his opponent’s strengths/weaknesses. I have no doubt that he’ll make Ogogo look like a star. What he shouldn’t do is eclipse Ogogo in the striking department. If Ogogo is a one trick pony (again, I don’t think this will be the case) it would be a mistake to take that away from him. Cody will showboat and offer up a solid jab or two, but Ogogo’s Olympic calibre punches should put The American Dream’s to shame.
By Tim Morehouse
Riho vs Serena Deeb - NWA Women's World Championship Match
These two met in the critically-acclaimed Women's World Championship Contender Tournament. It was a great match that, unfortunately, saw Deeb injure her knee.
With 2 almost 30 minute 2021 samples, we can see how this match may unfold. Serena Deeb has the advantage across the board, almost. She gets in more simple strikes, a chunk more grapples and exactly *ten times* the submission time. She is also willing to bend the rules, since returning from injury, and her Reversal Rate is a ridiculously impressive 37% of offence faced.
Riho will have to take to the sky in order to find a way around Deeb otherworldly stats, as her 11 Dives per hour form suggests she will. Her other saving grace will be her ability to up-level her strikes, with her striking down her opponents with 28% of her total strikes, 8% more of her total strikes in comparison to Deeb.
Deeb will seek a slow, methodical and impactful pace whereas Riho will aim to hit and move in a perfect clash of styles.
By Craig William.
Darby Allin/Sting vs Ethan Page/Scorpio Sky
Look at all of those zeroes! Because the team of Darby & Sting haven’t had a single traditional tag match to refer to for stats: only a cinematic Tornado rules street fight in an abandoned warehouse at Revolution. In fact, this will be Sting’s very first traditional wrestling match since his match with Seth Rollins in 2015 that everyone believed for years had meant the end of his career. So, this is very exciting, but at the same time, a completely unknown quantity, just as much so as the PPV debut of Anthony Ogogo.
While their opponents are not a completely unknown factor, our sample size is small: just one eight-and-a-half-minute match on Dynamite. But based on what we’ve seen so far, we can expect smooth teamwork and frequent tags from Sky & Page. This means very likely heat sequences, hot tags, and greatest-hits house-afire offence from their opponents. Darby is the obvious choice for the heat role, but I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Sting took that role once in the match just to prove he isn’t too fragile to get kicked around and do some selling. Not to mention his seemingly genuine love for Darby and desire to give his offence the hot-tag treatment as well.
By Sergei Alderman.
Jon Moxley/Eddie Kingston vs The Young Bucks - AEW World Tag Team Championship Match
The Bucks are the tag team experts here. Their dynamic, fast-paced style, and their years together in the ring shine through in these stats with the number of double teams and tags they manage to achieve per hour. Nick Jackson is famously known as one of the best hot-tags in the business, and these guys love to exploit that whenever they can. They’re all about entertainment - carefully measured violence and performance art all wrapped into one perfectly polished package. They’re the polar opposite of Moxley and Kingston whose entire schtick is being big bad, back-alley brawlers (with a soft side). However, what you can also deduce from the statistics above is that what Mox and Kingston lack in the finesse department, they make up for in raw power. There’s a 39% increase in strikes here to their benefit - that increase is no joke. Their strikedown rate is also at 25% compared to the Bucks’ 23%.
Moxley and Kingston are more hands-on and mat-based, whereas The Bucks (post-heel-turn especially) prefer to peacock about and spend a lot more time in the air. See the 19 to 9 comparison above for dives in the Bucks’ favour, and the 25 to 20 grappling comparison in Eddie and Mox’s favour. Their styles certainly contrast. As a result, I see this match playing out with Kingston and Moxley attempting to clip the Bucks’ wings (perhaps they’ll exploit Matt’s ankle and knee injury?) to keep their Air Jordan-less feet planted firmly on the mat. Mox and Eddie have the size and strength advantage here, and going up against a team as practised and synchronised as The Young Bucks, they’ll need to use that to gain control of the match early; effectively stopping them from playing to their strengths - tags, double teams and dives.
By Daisy Foster.
Kenny Omega vs PAC vs Orange Cassidy - AEW World Championship Match
The fact these three men don't have an accumulative in-ring time of an hour in traditional 1v1 matches on Dynamite and PPV is a nod to AEW's efforts in keeping 1v1 matches fresh.
The three men have very distinctive styles, according to these numbers. Kenny Omega utilised more than double the Grapples per hour of his opponents and dwarves PAC/Cassidy's Submission usage within these small sample areas. PAC on the other hand is the most varied participant, minus submissions which we know he will use at times, his plentiful Strikes are notable. Then we have Cassidy who is notable for his sparse offence but psychological style!
Expect to see offensive flurries where the three men exchange hard hitting offence in lightning quick exchanges. But you should also expect to see Omega neutralise the competition with successions of Grapples, most likely Snap Dragons, PAC to gain the upper hand with combinations of Strikes, again most likely Spinning Back Kicks to the midsection, and Orange Cassidy to punctuate comeback spots with high flying counter wrestling.
By Craig William.