Re-Introducing AEW Metrics - A Case Study » Dark: Elevation #44

Re-Introducing AEW Metrics - A Case Study » Dark: Elevation #44 It’s 2022 and with the new year comes a new opportunity to test how much wins and losses truly matter in AEW. This column serves to remind or to inform any readers about how exactly I, AEWmetrics, track AEW Metrics. works. The Win-Loss records and yearly metrics have both reset and the first show of the year provides the best chance to offer a case study as well as a less than overwhelming microcosm of how the data is calculated.

(These rosters are merely ordered alphabetically. For the curious, a white background indicates the wrestler is not on the current AEW roster page while those with a grey background are and the blue background signals the wrestler is currently in the Official Rankings; more on that later.)

But, as we all at least should know by now, not all wins and losses matters equally. While additional factors will be part of the final Metric calculation, for now everything we need to add up is part of the collective value known as Elite Points. These are the positive or negative generated values based on the result of that every match that has an official winner(s) and loser(s); in other words, everything except battle royals and draws. Every match is tracked based on the Event and Card placement, allowing PPV Main Event wins intrinsically worth more than Midcard wins on Dark. In multi-fall matches, Eliminations are noted as is overall fall differential (+/-) as well as additional points assigned for No DQ and Tournament matches. Prior to a few weeks ago, winning or losing Streaks were part of this but I no longer track this as a part of the total.

Therefore, let’s add in the Elite Points and see how our rosters and ranking evolve.

Of course, all winners increased and all winners decreased. But look closer: as Riho defeated Rossi in the Opener, one additional point was at stake. Similarly, Lethal prevailing over the debuting Troy Hollywood in the Main Event found him on the positive side of the six-point swing all final matches contain. Also note that the fall differential for Reynolds and Stetson were affected as the former pinned the latter while Silver and Orlando’s +/- remains unchanged as they were not directly involved in the decision.

But we’re far from done. Because it’s not just which show you win on the place on the card, of course who you defeat in the ring matters, sometimes a lot and sometimes a little. Make no mistake, the matches on Elevation and Dark are not usually filled with battles between top contenders or those with great Win-Loss records. In fact, 7 out of 8 defeated opponents (3 Men’s Singles, 1 Men’s Tag, 3 Women’s Singles) have not won a single AEW match; the outlier is Serpentico, who is now a woeful 2-23 (.080) in Singles. However, as Quality Points is determined by multiplying winning percentage by 10, that small number matters. In this case, it means Jake Atlas increases his Metrics by 0.80 Quality Points in the process. It is important to understand that, as the records of all a wrestler’s defeated opponents change, so does the quality of the victory, because Quality Points is the only dynamic statistic as it continually evolves. So what does this mean in practical terms? It means that everyone who has defeated Serpentico in Singles matches has now decreased their Quality Points because, to put it plainly, the quality of their past victories means less. How much less? Not much. Of the wrestlers who competed tonight, the only one this applies to is Scorpio Sky. The result of Serpentico losing dropped Sky’s Singles Quality score by 0.21. The decrease is also true for everyone who has defeated Serpentico but the amount will vary but this will be seen later. Uniquely though, because Scorpio Sky won his own match tonight, he managed to still increase his overall Singles Quality score (by 2.00, if you’re curious). This is despite the fact that his opponent, Ray Jaz, remains winless (0-3). Compare the following:

The result is a net positive of 1.78 Quality Points for Sky. (Number of Defeated Opponents multiplied by Winning Percentage) To be clear, the difference of four losses in the total accounts for Serpentico’s tonight and the 3 overall for Ray Jaz. The same basic scenario played out for Riho; by virtue of Skye Blue defeating Angelica Risk, Riho lost 0.47 in Singles Quality because she had also defeated Risk before. Then, when Riho beat Rossi tonight, she added another Defeated Opponent to her own records. Her result: a net positive of 3.03 Quality Points. (The 8-loss difference is 7 for Rossi and 1 for Risk and the 1-win is from the victory by Skye Blue, another past Defeated Opponent of Riho.)

An additional element is at play with the women tonight in that Megan Bayne won her first AEW match tonight, making her 1-4 Overall. With a winning percentage of .250, the three wrestlers who defeated her last year (Nyla Rose, Thunder Rosa and Big Swole) all fractional Quality Points despite not competing.

But for all those who did compete tonight, here's the complete picture.

Wait a second, who said anything about Andrade? He certainly isn't at the top of the table because he defeated JP Harlow. Look at who he has defeated before and their collective winning percentage.

If you haven’t figured it out, anyone who defeated anyone who won tonight also saw his/her Quality Points shift. And although not applying to the wrestlers who competed tonight, other considerations still need to be made on an ongoing basis. Obviously, there was no battle royal so no Battle Royal Points can be awarded. None of these wrestlers is a current champion so Championship Points are likewise not factoring in for this event. However, the final table here includes all champions as each has earned 3 due to holding onto their respective titles through the first three days of the calendar year. First, the gentlemen:

And the ladies:

That’s 47 men and 22 women in total affected by the 8 matches tonight and by being current champions. In the coming days, Ranking Points will be accumulated upon release, typically on Wednesdays and Fridays, once again the Metrics will shift at that time. And that’s it. Hope this has helped clear things up without being too overwhelming. Please note all numbers are rounded to two decimal places for simplicity but to show a degree of detail.

Anyone with questions or comments is encouraged to respond here or on Twitter @AEWmetrics.