Jon Moxley Title Run - The Statistical Story So Far

In this article we look at the title reign of Jon Moxley. This reign divides opinion. Some are very positive about Moxley's run and use it to deride the WWE's use of him whereas others consider it a failure due to it's placement on cards and decisive match quality. In this article we are going to use data trends to examine the themes that come out of his 4 AEW World Championship matches so far.


The graphs in this article are built from this dataset:


This data is compiled by using a shorthand to collate in-ring statistics for the in-ring performances of wrestlers. This is an example of how this is done:


In this article we will be using the 'Per Hour' rates to examine trends. We cannot compare 'Per Match' rates because the differing match times skews this number. By multiplying up the per match numbers to find out the rate of each statistical category if the match had reached exactly 60 minutes we can compare the performances across matches.


This is the same method used to compare association football players statistics when minutes played is skewed due to differing injury times added to matches and the possibility of substitution. The only difference is 90 minutes is used instead of 60 as is the standard length of a football game. For example, check out the best strikers in European football history based on their goals per game ratio.


If you haven't read the Page/Omega article first, it is recommended you do so first.



Strike Rate

Strikes are punches, kicks, chops etc. Strikedowns are strikes that drop the opponent to the mat.

As with the tag champs we are starting with the glue to any wrestling match, strikes. The most interesting here is the huge drop in striking for the Darby Allin match. Until then he is very consistent.


To be honest, this dataset doesn't reveal too much!



Grapple, Dive and Submission Rate

Grapples are power moves such as Powerbombs, Suplexes, Slams, Drivers, etc. Dives are jumping moves where elevation is used to add impact. Submission is presented by accumulated lengths of submission holds.

Focusing first on the small changes at the bottom of the graph. As time has gone on Moxley is resorting to dives less and less but is able to assert dominance slightly more through powerful Grapples. This is reflective of more control over a match. If you cast your mind back to the start of the year, Moxley was a one eyed man up against a faction. So this makes sense.


The use of submission jumps dramatically. We saw this first against Jake Hager, this was Moxley expanding his arsenal as he did over time in Japan during his G1 run. Please note, the Hager match is not included in this dataset as it was a no-DQ match. Submissions also indicate a competitor is driving home his dominance in the ring.



Reversal Rates

Reversals are opposition moves that are repelled and turned to one's own advantage. The percentage rate is the percentage of the opponent's total offensive efforts that are reversed.

In the early days of Moxley's 2020 form we spoke often on the Wrestling with Statistics podcast that Moxley's stats showed he was the most resilient wrestler on the roster. He was absorbing damage but not reversing much but still coming out on top. Things have changed uring his title run.


His frequency in the ring has decreased and he had an extended period away from the ring during lockdown. A now healed up Moxley is able to wrestle in a richer more positive way. He isn't falling back on his resilience but taking the fight to his opponents.


He is also reversing more and more, especially against the titanic threat of Brian Cage.



Percentage of Total Match Offence

Percentage of total match offence used by Moxley

As previously mentioned Jon Moxley's control over wrestling matches has improved significantly since the start of the year. In his title defences he has dominated the match in all three of them. Almost reaching 60% of the offence on 2 occasions.



Conclusion

Moxley is undefeated, MJF is undefeated. However the big difference is the attitude. When the going gets tough, Moxley adds strings to his bow or relies on resilience. MJF on the otherhand takes a very different route.


Moxley should walk out of this contest still champion according to the statistics we have so far. That doesn't mean he will.MJF is a conniving yet talented challenge.



Evolution of In-ring Metrics Comparison


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