Bi-Weekly Metrics Update - February 13, 2022

Updated: Feb 15

Well, hello! Due to circumstances mostly but not entirely in my control, there was no update last week. My sincere apologies to those who have been eagerly anticipating the latest installment of this column; yes, both of you. Enough preamble, let's jump right in.

The gentlemen are led by World Champion Adam Page, who vaulted to the top of the table after his spirited defeat of challenger Lance Archer in a Texas Death Match . The combination of 8 Elite Points (2 for Dynamite, 3 for Main Event 3 for No DQ) made this particular Title Defense of more significant consequence than normal. TNT Champion Sammy Guevara follows closely behind and, with a scheduled Title Defense of his own in two days against Darby Allin, these two could flip flop again before the end of the month heading into the Revolution PPV in early March.

Adam Cole is remains the obvious next in line and his AEWMetrics numbers bear this out. As an unofficial match, his Lights-Out match loss had no bearing on these statistics. While I'm eagerly anticipating that match, Wardlow remains the most intriguing one to watch and, impossible as it may seem, he remains hiding in plain sight. Let me explain.

I'm predicting that Wardlow wins the Face of the Revolution Ladder Match to a mostly if not entirely cheering crowd. Assuming Page defends against Cole, this sets up Page vs Wardlow 2; they last faced off in the World Championship Eliminator Semi-Final in October 2020. Out of pure ego and selfishness, MJF can cost his employee the championship. The two can have their long-simmering 1-on-1 encounter at Double or Nothing in May.

The ladies are led by their champions as well but in a different order as Jade Cargill is out in front by a considerable margin. The relative frequency TBS Championship matches and resultant Title Defenses have been a driving force but a closer look reveals the separation from Women's World Champion Dr. Britt Baker, DMD is also owing to an increase in Quality Points. This was not necessarily unexpected as the fact that Cargill is now facing opponents with at middling to decent (eg. Julia Hart, Anna Jay) Win-Loss Records.

It's unclear to me at this time where Officially Ranked #1 Leyla Hirsh is going to slot in as it still seems that all roads are leading to Rosa vs Baker. Personally, I'm most intrigued by the onset of Serena Deeb's "Professor's Five-Minute Challenge" although whether this factors into either title picture remains to be seen. As much as I want to see the Woman of a Thousand Holds with a title, having multiple women's feuds including those that are not fixated singularly on winning a belt is undoubtedly a good thing for the long-term growth of the Women's Division.

As for Tag Teams, according to the Metrics, it's the Jurassic Express and everybody else. Since winning the World Tag Team Championship, it's been a few simple stories of lining up the challengers and knock them down. The belts have not seemed to be any danger as Dark Order (Reynolds & Silver), Private Party & Gunn Club have each fallen short in their pursuits.

FTR remains in the conversation although that could change this week following their loss to Punk and Moxley. That leaves The Acclaimed, who seemed like natural challengers for Jungle Boy and Luchasaurus early in the year; however, after losing to Darby and Sting, they have gone relatively quiet. They could be revved back up in time for Revolution but I suspect has his eyes set elsewhere, namely the Kings of the Black Throne.

No other team has entered the Official Rankings after just a single match. This was a clear and deliberate signal that this was a team on the rise and, almost certainly, that rise with culminate with the Kings being crowned new champions.

Across the board, even as we are now more than 10% of the way through the calendar year, it's clear that the Official Rankings and AEWMetrics Rankings are closely correlated. This will likely be true to a lesser degree as time goes on, injuries occur, wrestlers get released and signed, etc. For now, it's lots of fun for stats geeks like myself because it feels like we are rewarded for paying attention.

Let me know if you agree or disagree with my takes. Anyone with questions or comments is encouraged to respond here or on Twitter @AEWmetrics.

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