Welcome to the Pro Wrestling Musings Preview Roundtable for tonight's AEW All Out! This preview is built around our revolutionary(!) In-ring Performance Statistics. We collect statistics from every televised, traditional rules 1v1 and 2v2 AEW match. You can find those statistics for 2021 here. For a full explanation of these statistics and the language used check out this guide.
This article provides a preview for each match from All Out based on each wrestler's average statistics using a per hour rate to flatten out differences between match times. We can find out who utilises strikes, grapples, submissions and much much more using this data. Our writers have then used this data to predict how the match will play out in and out with Kayfabe.
PWMusings writer, Sergei Alderman has also used our data to provide a statistics preview based on percentiles. This is available here.
The contributors to this article are:
- Gareth Ford Elliott (@RHWGareth)
- Dan Humphrey (@WrestlingRhymes)
- Tim Morehouse (TimmayMan)
- Craig William (@CraigPWMusings)
- Shreyas (@OneeWingedAngel)
CM Punk vs Darby Allin
[Craig] This is an interesting one (obviously!), statistically. Darby Allin is an underdog babyface due to his size and his statistics back up the fact that this is how he wrestles. He averages 45% of the totaloffence against his opponents and tends to take 37 move offensive moves than he dishes out per hour on in-ring wrestling.
Allin wrestles with fast-paced strikedowns (10% of his strikes result in knockdown), powerful grapples, lightning quick dives and plentiful submissions. His use of grapples and, in particular, submission holds goes against his underdog stereotyping. He can allow CM Punk to get a lot of the offence before coming back to give Punk a wave of comeback momentum to repel or he can grind Punk down with submission for a spell to galvanise the Chicago crowd behind a Punk-comeback.
The hyper-popular Darby Allin will lose this match to Punk in all likelihood but thrilling comeback spots will make Punk’s win look as if he merely withstood Allin due to nous or home field advantage. One thing is for sure, Punk and Darby will emerge from this tantalising clash the better for it.
[Gareth] This will be fascinating for the reasons Craig has mentioned above. It is a weird first match back for Punk because the story is “can Punk still go?” but he’s facing a natural underdog. Taking that into consideration, I expect Punk to have a great showing, dominating the match whilst proving that he is still the “best in the world” as we slowly build towards the dream match; “greatest of all time” vs “best in the world”, Punk vs Omega. Winner: CM Punk.
[Tim] Punk is clearly the babyface going into this, so will Darby show more heel tendencies during this match? I don’t even know what that would look like as he hasn’t shown that side during his entire time in AEW. Could the Chicago crowd boo Allin? It wouldn’t take much, simply cutting off Punk’s momentum would probably do it. What of Punk’s style? Seven years is a long time for ideas to bounce around his head and with his maturity we’re not getting ROH or even WWE Punk. It’ll be some new hybrid that may surprise the audience. Lots of unknowns going in but the winner shouldn’t be a shock. Winner: CM Punk
[Dan] Darby Allin is a hell of a first match back for someone who hasn’t wrestled for over seven years, so kudos to CM Punk for picking this as his re-emergence on the pro-wrestling scene. On Rampage this week Punk was talking about how he has ‘scouted’ Darby ahead of their match, but based on the stats above and what we know of Allin’s style, I’m really not sure how anyone can prepare adequately. Will he engage you in a technical masterpiece as was the case with Daniel Garcia this week? Will he pummel you with what is a surprisingly high strikedown rate? Will he hit with one of those dives that make it look like he’s been shot out of a goth-cannon? Or, in fact, will he bite your face and hit you with a skateboard? Literally all of these options could come to pass for CM Punk, and I expect to see a story of the older and wiser wrestler really going through the ringer against his young opponent. Punk will win (imagine if he didn’t!) but he’ll probably have to go through hell to get there. Winner: CM Punk
[Shreyas] This match is definitely the biggest wildcard on the show. That’s mostly due to Punk not having wrestled for 7+ years. Darby is the best possible opponent for him in this situation though, the guy takes crazy bumps even when he is facing local enhancement talent on Dark and Elevation, one can only imagine what all he is going to do in CM Punk's long-awaited match in his hometown. This match will be more about the occasion itself, with the rabid Chicago crowd going wild for their hometown hero. I have a feeling Punk will do much better than everyone is expecting, as Christian Cage has mentioned and displayed, getting back into wrestling is like riding a bike, Punk being very good should not have much problems once the initial ring rust wears off. Expect Darby to be more on the attack at the start with quick flurries of offence, but Punk wins this with his crafty veteran experience. I am very intrigued to see how much of his MMA training Punk is going to incorporate into his move set. There’s only one right winner for this match, and it’s Pepsi Man. Winner: CM Punk
Christian Cage vs Kenny Omega - AEW World Championship
[Craig] Christian out did Omega in terms of strikes and reversals but the story was more around how Omega’s insecurity and Cage’s experience combined to Omega’s detriment. Omega thinks he is the best but will not go truly one on one in the ring. At the last PPV both Orange Cassidy and Pac can feel aggrieved at not walking out as AEW World Champion.
Omega’s in-ring performance against Christian was fine. He utilised strikes as he normally would but was missing him usual high grapple output. This is how he usually overwhelms his opponents; a combination of numerous grapples and strikedowns until the time is right to hit the One-Winged Angel.
Christian on the other hand, put in a varied performance. There is no reason that doing more grapples, but less dives and submission should have led Christian to the win. It is far more likely the Young Bucks turning the match on its head made Omega think he had it in the bag and Christian took advantage of that laziness.
If Omega wants to hold onto his AEW World Championship, he may want to keep this match away from such all or nothing flashpoints and take Christian out into the Omega/Okada deep water. Can 47 year old Christian really hang with Omega if he forces the Impact World Champion to wrestle at high intensity beyond the 30 minute mark? Perhaps this is how he finds the opening to hit all those game-changing grapples.
Out with Kayfabe, this will be a longer match. Whether it goes anywhere near New Japan match times, I’m not convinced. I’d guess it hits 25 and we do see Omega’s usual late match spree of hard hitting grapples. In terms of a result? There’s no way Omega doesn’t leave victorious.
[Tim] Their Rampage match went over 15 minutes. The PPV rematch should be longer and given this extra time to breathe I'm expecting to see both men at their absolute best. I wouldn’t be surprised if their per hour rate for every category goes above their 2021 averages. Omega’s pin attempts should be high as his frustration grows more with every Christain kick-out. Still, the end result of this one is pretty easy see. Omega’s going to have this title up until Full Gear (at least). Winner: Kenny Omega
[Dan] I agree with Craig and Tim that this match will go longer than their Impact Title encounter, and that should allow both wrestlers to really show their impressive array of skills. I expect to see a lot more striking in the early stages of this match with the story between the two having become much more heated since their first face-off. I would also be surprised if we saw Christian Cage get a similar dominant spike as the flow of offence showed from the first match. I think we’ll get a much more traditional ‘heel v babyface’ match with Omega dominating the majority of proceedings on this occasion. Either way it promises to be another fascinating match between the two and if, as I predict, Omega wins, we could also be set for a third-match decider. Winner: Kenny Omega
[Shreyas] I am super excited for this match, it’s one of the two I am expecting to be match of the night. Kenny and Christian put on a barn-burner in a short TV match with commercial breaks on the Rampage pilot where they were evidently holding back and never really went into 5th gear. The story going into this is that Christian Cage is in Kenny's head, having shaken the Belt Collector’s confidence by taking from his collection. Kenny is a tad bit afraid of Christian, as seen in the tag match on Rampage that also featured Kaz and Brandon Cutler. Expect Christian to have more offence in this match but will probably be more of an equal exchange in the final stretches of the match, with the Best Bout Machine stealing the win and keeping his most valuable possession. Winner: Kenny Omega
Kris Statlander vs Britt Baker - AEW Women's World Championship
[Gareth] The stats here only tell us part of the story, because as PWM’s brilliant Sergei Alderman will tell you, “Styles Make Fights”. Kris Statlander vs Britt Baker is a very different match to Baker vs Red Velvet, for example. Because of this I think we will see the more powerful Statlander dominate in the strikedowns, despite the stats showing a fairly even game in that regard, as well as with grapples. Meanwhile, Baker will lean on her submissions, as well as her tendency to cheat, in order to ultimately retain her championship. Winner: Britt Baker.
[Craig] A great clash of styles here as well as some very well-matched characteristics too as the devious Britt Baker defends against the athletically outstanding Kris Statlander. When it comes to striking stats, both are very evenly matched, as they are when it comes to reversals. This is where the similarities in style stop.
Baker tends to get in more of the offence in her matches whereas Statlander does not. Statlander utilises significantly more grapples and dives whereas Baker keeps things on the mat with submissions. This match pits Statlander’s big offence against Baker’s consistent and smothering attack. Baker will win this one but bank on Statlander looking like a star.