AEW All Out 2021 Statistical Preview Roundtable
Welcome to the Pro Wrestling Musings Preview Roundtable for tonight's AEW All Out! This preview is built around our revolutionary(!) In-ring Performance Statistics. We collect statistics from every televised, traditional rules 1v1 and 2v2 AEW match. You can find those statistics for 2021 here. For a full explanation of these statistics and the language used check out this guide.
This article provides a preview for each match from All Out based on each wrestler's average statistics using a per hour rate to flatten out differences between match times. We can find out who utilises strikes, grapples, submissions and much much more using this data. Our writers have then used this data to predict how the match will play out in and out with Kayfabe.
PWMusings writer, Sergei Alderman has also used our data to provide a statistics preview based on percentiles. This is available here.
The contributors to this article are:
- Gareth Ford Elliott (@RHWGareth)
- Dan Humphrey (@WrestlingRhymes)
- Tim Morehouse (TimmayMan)
- Craig William (@CraigPWMusings)
- Shreyas (@OneeWingedAngel)
CM Punk vs Darby Allin
[Craig] This is an interesting one (obviously!), statistically. Darby Allin is an underdog babyface due to his size and his statistics back up the fact that this is how he wrestles. He averages 45% of the totaloffence against his opponents and tends to take 37 move offensive moves than he dishes out per hour on in-ring wrestling.
Allin wrestles with fast-paced strikedowns (10% of his strikes result in knockdown), powerful grapples, lightning quick dives and plentiful submissions. His use of grapples and, in particular, submission holds goes against his underdog stereotyping. He can allow CM Punk to get a lot of the offence before coming back to give Punk a wave of comeback momentum to repel or he can grind Punk down with submission for a spell to galvanise the Chicago crowd behind a Punk-comeback.
The hyper-popular Darby Allin will lose this match to Punk in all likelihood but thrilling comeback spots will make Punk’s win look as if he merely withstood Allin due to nous or home field advantage. One thing is for sure, Punk and Darby will emerge from this tantalising clash the better for it.
[Gareth] This will be fascinating for the reasons Craig has mentioned above. It is a weird first match back for Punk because the story is “can Punk still go?” but he’s facing a natural underdog. Taking that into consideration, I expect Punk to have a great showing, dominating the match whilst proving that he is still the “best in the world” as we slowly build towards the dream match; “greatest of all time” vs “best in the world”, Punk vs Omega. Winner: CM Punk.
[Tim] Punk is clearly the babyface going into this, so will Darby show more heel tendencies during this match? I don’t even know what that would look like as he hasn’t shown that side during his entire time in AEW. Could the Chicago crowd boo Allin? It wouldn’t take much, simply cutting off Punk’s momentum would probably do it. What of Punk’s style? Seven years is a long time for ideas to bounce around his head and with his maturity we’re not getting ROH or even WWE Punk. It’ll be some new hybrid that may surprise the audience. Lots of unknowns going in but the winner shouldn’t be a shock. Winner: CM Punk
[Dan] Darby Allin is a hell of a first match back for someone who hasn’t wrestled for over seven years, so kudos to CM Punk for picking this as his re-emergence on the pro-wrestling scene. On Rampage this week Punk was talking about how he has ‘scouted’ Darby ahead of their match, but based on the stats above and what we know of Allin’s style, I’m really not sure how anyone can prepare adequately. Will he engage you in a technical masterpiece as was the case with Daniel Garcia this week? Will he pummel you with what is a surprisingly high strikedown rate? Will he hit with one of those dives that make it look like he’s been shot out of a goth-cannon? Or, in fact, will he bite your face and hit you with a skateboard? Literally all of these options could come to pass for CM Punk, and I expect to see a story of the older and wiser wrestler really going through the ringer against his young opponent. Punk will win (imagine if he didn’t!) but he’ll probably have to go through hell to get there. Winner: CM Punk
[Shreyas] This match is definitely the biggest wildcard on the show. That’s mostly due to Punk not having wrestled for 7+ years. Darby is the best possible opponent for him in this situation though, the guy takes crazy bumps even when he is facing local enhancement talent on Dark and Elevation, one can only imagine what all he is going to do in CM Punk's long-awaited match in his hometown. This match will be more about the occasion itself, with the rabid Chicago crowd going wild for their hometown hero. I have a feeling Punk will do much better than everyone is expecting, as Christian Cage has mentioned and displayed, getting back into wrestling is like riding a bike, Punk being very good should not have much problems once the initial ring rust wears off. Expect Darby to be more on the attack at the start with quick flurries of offence, but Punk wins this with his crafty veteran experience. I am very intrigued to see how much of his MMA training Punk is going to incorporate into his move set. There’s only one right winner for this match, and it’s Pepsi Man. Winner: CM Punk
Christian Cage vs Kenny Omega - AEW World Championship
[Craig] Christian out did Omega in terms of strikes and reversals but the story was more around how Omega’s insecurity and Cage’s experience combined to Omega’s detriment. Omega thinks he is the best but will not go truly one on one in the ring. At the last PPV both Orange Cassidy and Pac can feel aggrieved at not walking out as AEW World Champion.
Omega’s in-ring performance against Christian was fine. He utilised strikes as he normally would but was missing him usual high grapple output. This is how he usually overwhelms his opponents; a combination of numerous grapples and strikedowns until the time is right to hit the One-Winged Angel.
Christian on the other hand, put in a varied performance. There is no reason that doing more grapples, but less dives and submission should have led Christian to the win. It is far more likely the Young Bucks turning the match on its head made Omega think he had it in the bag and Christian took advantage of that laziness.
If Omega wants to hold onto his AEW World Championship, he may want to keep this match away from such all or nothing flashpoints and take Christian out into the Omega/Okada deep water. Can 47 year old Christian really hang with Omega if he forces the Impact World Champion to wrestle at high intensity beyond the 30 minute mark? Perhaps this is how he finds the opening to hit all those game-changing grapples.
Out with Kayfabe, this will be a longer match. Whether it goes anywhere near New Japan match times, I’m not convinced. I’d guess it hits 25 and we do see Omega’s usual late match spree of hard hitting grapples. In terms of a result? There’s no way Omega doesn’t leave victorious.
[Tim] Their Rampage match went over 15 minutes. The PPV rematch should be longer and given this extra time to breathe I'm expecting to see both men at their absolute best. I wouldn’t be surprised if their per hour rate for every category goes above their 2021 averages. Omega’s pin attempts should be high as his frustration grows more with every Christain kick-out. Still, the end result of this one is pretty easy see. Omega’s going to have this title up until Full Gear (at least). Winner: Kenny Omega
[Dan] I agree with Craig and Tim that this match will go longer than their Impact Title encounter, and that should allow both wrestlers to really show their impressive array of skills. I expect to see a lot more striking in the early stages of this match with the story between the two having become much more heated since their first face-off. I would also be surprised if we saw Christian Cage get a similar dominant spike as the flow of offence showed from the first match. I think we’ll get a much more traditional ‘heel v babyface’ match with Omega dominating the majority of proceedings on this occasion. Either way it promises to be another fascinating match between the two and if, as I predict, Omega wins, we could also be set for a third-match decider. Winner: Kenny Omega
[Shreyas] I am super excited for this match, it’s one of the two I am expecting to be match of the night. Kenny and Christian put on a barn-burner in a short TV match with commercial breaks on the Rampage pilot where they were evidently holding back and never really went into 5th gear. The story going into this is that Christian Cage is in Kenny's head, having shaken the Belt Collector’s confidence by taking from his collection. Kenny is a tad bit afraid of Christian, as seen in the tag match on Rampage that also featured Kaz and Brandon Cutler. Expect Christian to have more offence in this match but will probably be more of an equal exchange in the final stretches of the match, with the Best Bout Machine stealing the win and keeping his most valuable possession. Winner: Kenny Omega
Kris Statlander vs Britt Baker - AEW Women's World Championship
[Gareth] The stats here only tell us part of the story, because as PWM’s brilliant Sergei Alderman will tell you, “Styles Make Fights”. Kris Statlander vs Britt Baker is a very different match to Baker vs Red Velvet, for example. Because of this I think we will see the more powerful Statlander dominate in the strikedowns, despite the stats showing a fairly even game in that regard, as well as with grapples. Meanwhile, Baker will lean on her submissions, as well as her tendency to cheat, in order to ultimately retain her championship. Winner: Britt Baker.
[Craig] A great clash of styles here as well as some very well-matched characteristics too as the devious Britt Baker defends against the athletically outstanding Kris Statlander. When it comes to striking stats, both are very evenly matched, as they are when it comes to reversals. This is where the similarities in style stop.
Baker tends to get in more of the offence in her matches whereas Statlander does not. Statlander utilises significantly more grapples and dives whereas Baker keeps things on the mat with submissions. This match pits Statlander’s big offence against Baker’s consistent and smothering attack. Baker will win this one but bank on Statlander looking like a star.
All that being said, Statlander’s overall match time over her 4 televised 1v1 matches in 2021 is another strike against the AEW Women’s Division. As number one contender to a World Championship she should have been showcased in traditional 1v1s for more than 20 minutes.
[Tim] Statlander has a clear advantage in grapples and dives, while Baker is the submission expert. I don’t see either side switching during their PPV bout so it will be an interesting mesh of styles. Unless Baker’s injury is holding her back (I don’t think this is the case) she should retain. Winner: Dr. Britt Baker DMD
[Dan] Statlander’s performance on Rampage this week was perfectly crafted to highlight the main asset she has in favour over the good doctor. Her strength. I fully expect to see the AEW Women’s Champion subjected to a number of ‘power moves’ from the challenger, although as the stats show the galaxy’s greatest alien isn’t afraid to throw some athleticism into her performances as well. The question will be whether Britt can ground Statlander long enough to work her submission magic, and perhaps the most important statistic above is the number of fouls that Baker is willing to commit. With her cronies at ringside I expect shenanigans to play a part here, and that will allow everyone’s favourite dentist to get the win. Winner: Dr Britt Baker DMD
Lucha Brothers vs Young Bucks - AEW World Tag Team Championships
[Gareth] This match being in a steel cage really fascinates me. We’ve seen these two teams face each other in various matches, but I never would have chosen a steel cage for them. It seems to limit them, but what you must remember is that it is impossible to limit these two tag teams.
I have no idea how the stats affect this match because the cage will change everything. I expect the Bucks to utilise their environment whilst the Lucha Bros use it to escape the Bucks’ form of brutality. Besides that, all I can expect is a career defining match for both teams.
As for the division, it does need some shaking up. My hope is that Santana & Ortiz defeat the Young Bucks at Arthur Ashe because, whilst I think this is the greatest tag title reign ever, the Bucks have faced everyone interesting except for Santana & Ortiz now. It will be time to move forward and truly focus on the division again soon. Winner: The Young Bucks.
[Tim] Of all the championship matches, this one has the best chance of resulting in new champions. The history between the two teams is well established, the animosity from both teams is known, the added dimension of the cage magnifies both. I'm shocked that so many categories are as close as they are. Stirkes within 5, strikedowns a virtual tie, taunts within 3. Taunts! If you’re keeping up with Penta on taunts that puts you in rarified air. The YB will still find a way to foul even without outside interference (although you know the Good Bros will try). Cutler will also try but Kazarian will probably cut him down quickly. Should be match of the night, contender for MOTY. Winners: Lucha Bros
[Dan] I know this isn’t really in keeping with our mantra at Pro Wrestling Musings, but for this one I think the stats go out of the window (or the cage) completely. It’s almost impossible to conceive what these two teams will be able to conjure up inside a cage, although we did get a glimpse of the violence that the Bucks are capable of on Dynamite. Perhaps the one statistic that is most relevant for this title match is the high level of fouls from the Bucks. Theoretically this match-format should prevent that being an issue…let’s face it Luke Gallows isn’t going to put the effort in to climb a cage. So will the Bucks’ over-reliance on being a bit naughty come back to haunt them here? I suspect they’ll still find a way to be the magnificent bastards that they’ve been for the last few months and as a result I think they’ll also find a way to win. But it’s going to be exhilarating seeing what these four are able to deliver. Winners: Young Bucks
[Craig] Very similar to the Baker/Statlander stats, these! Strikes are very evenly matched, and the same face/heel split with grapples/dives and submissions occurs. The change in the Young Buck’s in-ring stats since they turned heel is worth checking out.
The statistics on the Lucha Bros side are quite something. If this match goes 20 minutes, and it very easily could, they are likely to get around 8 dives in and 15 grapples. Baring in mind, that’s their average for this timescale, who knows how high they could push that number for their return to the main event of the Tag Team Division.
The taunt and foul statistics are pretty extreme. Both teams love to play to the crowd one way or another, expect this to feature heavily at the start of this match. Since turning face, the Lucha Bros have been playing it very clean in their two 2v2 televised matches. The Young Bucks on the other hand have racked up a foul rate that the Bullet Club Japan would be proud of.
With no tags required in a steel cage match, I’d expect those double team numbers to be key. The Young Bucks are more adept at working together to impose maximum damage on their opponents. This should lead the Bucks to victory from a Kayfabe perspective and will probably be how the match is presented in a non-Kayfabe way; the Bucks will take control via a series of double team manoeuvres to an isolated opponent.
[Shreyas] Oh buddy, this is going to be quite something isn’t it. This is the other match I have predicted to be one of the matches of the night, just imagining this is already incredible even though I haven’t seen anything. 4 of the most creative workers in professional wrestling, locked inside a solid steel (and VERY TALL) cage, we’re in for something special. Penta and Fenix will definitely have more offence than the Jacksons, who have decreased their flashy offensive moves ever since they turned heel. What more can I really add to this? It’s two of the best tag teams ever with a compelling story, personal history, inside a cage, you just know it’s going to blow your mind.
Expect a lot of callbacks to their previous matches, with the Lucha Brothers taking the win in the end, and putting an end to one of the greatest tag title reigns ever. The go-home angle on Dynamite with the Elite absolutely decimating Fenix, Penta and Christian was a home-run and this has to end in a babyface win because of that. Good Brothers and Cutler try to cheat but are kept at bay by Kaz and Jurassic Express. I think the finish will involve a chair that the Elite manage to sneak inside, mirroring the finish of Kenny vs Christian on Rampage that was also foreshadowed in the Bucks-Jurassic Express match. Fear Factor+Stomp combination on the chair for the 1, 2, 3! Winner: Lucha Bros
Eddie Kingstone vs Miro - TNT Championship
[Tim] Not the most build leading up to this match but thanks to a scuffle and a “deez nuts” reference and this match has quickly moved up the list in my anticipated bouts for the evening. There’s been a great focus on Miro’s susceptibility to DDTs and other moves that focus on the neck so expect Kingson to greatly increase the amount of grapples he hits. He’ll need to as Miro has the edge in so many other categories. I would love to see Miro break out a dive just for the sake of it. I also expect Kingston to hit his back hand finisher but it’s not going to matter for the final result. Miro’s God and wife will be pleased. Winner: Miro
[Gareth] I simply cannot wait for this. A badass babyface going up against a monster heel. The build has been simple, but that is all it has needed to be. It will be fascinating to see Kingston going up against a bigger man, as the underdog, and will make for excellent babyface comeback spots. I expect Miro to dominate this match, but Kingston to level the playing field with strong strikes and, as Tim mentioned above, that DDT.
I think Miro retains, as much as I would love to see Eddie finally win a title. Miro’s reign doesn’t feel anywhere near finished and it would be a shame to see it end here. It would be nice to see Eddie really go down fighting. Let us suffer watching him in that Game Over submission finisher before he eventually fades away. Winner: Miro.
[Dan] Miro’s stats for 2021 are incredibly impressive. A large number of strikes and strikedowns, a very high level of grapples and also a very strong submission game, all whilst taunting his opponents into oblivion. Eddie Kingston on the other hand is a far less complicated creature, and has effectively told us all that he’s coming for Miro’s neck. It’s an interesting wrinkle that they’ve thrown in to give Miro that one weakness that Eddie can target, and I expect that to largely dominate the storytelling here. It’s also interesting that Eddie Kingston has very little one-on-one experience under his belt in 2021 and I wonder if that will become a factor if the match goes over 10 minutes. It’s hard to see the Bulgarian losing here, nuts or no nuts, but it should be a pretty explosive encounter either way. Winner: Miro
Chris Jericho vs MJF - Jericho's AEW Wrestling Career is on the Line
[Tim] That strike count is surprising to me as I didn’t think Jericho would be that high. Similarly, I didn’t expect the submission time to favour MJF so heavily. Like many Jericho matches this one will probably come down to the final seconds and who can reverse in time to land a finisher. This match is one of the hardest to predict since the stipulation is so heavy. Jericho has been a fixture in pro-wrestling for 30 years. He’s been one of my personal favourite performers. The idea that he just wont wrestle anymore while understandable feels so unreal. Yet, the man is over 50 and has plenty of side gigs to attend to. It may be time for old yeller to visit the shed. Winner: MJF
[Dan] I think the pure variety of matches that Jericho has had in 2021 accounts for the above stats which have him as both a brawler and somewhat of a high-flyer. I think it will be the brawling that will dominate early on, but if this is to be Jericho’s last hurrah he may want to break some of his old moves as well (although please be careful with the Lionsault Chris!) As for MJF we know he will be focusing on the arm and we know he’ll be trying to be a dirty little sneak whilst he does it. In terms of a prediction, this is the hardest one to call for me. Will Jericho really ride off into the sunset? Will AEW legitimately replace him with MJF? If not I’ll personally be very disappointed, so I’m predicting with what I want to see rather than what I suspect may happen. Winner: MJF
Jon Moxley vs Satoshi Kojima
[Tim] Which angle does Mox take here? Does he go for a strong style strike offense? Maybe a submission focus? It’s hard to say as I don’t really know what Kojima is going to bring aside from a wicked lariat and love of bread. I do expect fouls and taunts to be minor as I don’t see Mox turning heel during what is essentially an exhibition match. Winner: Mox
[Dan] I think this will be a massacre. Don’t get me wrong, Kojima can still go to a certain level and some of the lack of respect he’s received simply for not being Tanahashi is ludicrous. But within the ropes at All Out, I think Moxley will pummel the bread-loving veteran. We’ve been seeing Mox gradually become more agitated and violent in the last few weeks and I think this is where all of that explodes in a complete decimation of Kojima. Yes Kojima will get his never-ending slaps spot in the corner…but I fear that may be all he gets. Winner: Jon Moxley
[Gareth] As much as I would love to see a proper match between these two, I also think this is the perfect opportunity for Moxley to truly murder someone, ushering in a darker era of Mox. Not a match that isn’t competitive, but a switch during the match, a Paradigm Shift that just isn’t enough for Mox before a bulldog choke, left on a tad longer than necessary, finishes the match. Something like that. Either way, I don’t think the winner is in doubt. Winner: Jon Moxley.
Women's Casino Battle Royale - AEW Women's World Championship Number One Contendership
[Tim] Let’s assume that Ruby Soho is the 21st entrant, I’m so excited for her debut based on the vignettes that she’s produced for social media. I haven’t seen any of her previous work but these short clips have already displayed her character and attitude better than anyone since Moxley’s debut back in 2019. However, I don’t think she’ll win as whoever eliminates her will be an easy starting feud. I think the performer that has been racking up wins over on Dark will win the royale, and that’s Tay Conti. Winner: Tay Conti
[Gareth] My hope and prediction for this match is Tay Conti. They’ve built to this match by showcasing Conti and a match for the title against Britt Baker would be a lot of fun for Tay. Although, for me this is more about giving Conti a big moment on a big stage. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thunder Rosa won, but it would feel unnecessarily rushed to for someone who seems a perfect opponent for Baker at Full Gear. Winner: Tay Conti
[Dan] I don’t think AEW will ‘nail the concept’ because fundamentally it’s a pretty daft concept to begin with. I understand that they are trying to differentiate themselves, and I do actually like the ‘joker’ element, but the random groups of people all coming out at the same time just doesn’t work for me. The other element I do like with the Casino Battle Royale matches though is that it elevates someone to the title picture (I will never understand why WWE don’t do this with their Wrestlemania Battle Royales) and it’s interesting to consider who will be given the chance to face, presumably, Dr Britt Baker DMD. I like Tim and Gareth’s pick of Tay Conti, and she certainly seems to be the one who has been pushed in recent shows. I would also love to see Ruby Soho come in and win it, and even if she doesn’t I’m really looking forward to her in AEW. But I think the person to keep an eye on is the currently undefeated Jade Cargill. It’s probably too early for her to challenge Britt Baker now, but she could potentially sit on her title opportunity whilst off promoting her wine and other ventures, and you then have a ready-made heel for when AEW eventually turn Britt Baker babyface. Winner: Jade Cargill
[Shreyas] I can’t wait for this match because I absolutely love battle royales. It is a fun time that allows a lot of people to get a spot on the show, with several mini stories running in the background. Expect the Jade Cargill-Nyla Rose alliance to wreck shop, with Jade probably having the most eliminations in the match, before a disagreement leads to both of them being eliminated. There are several small alliances going into this, and that is going to add a very fun dynamic to the match. As for the winner, I am on the same page as Tim and Gareth. It’s too early to pull the trigger on a Britt vs Rosa rematch, which should ideally end in Rosa winning the gold, possibly at Revolution. So in my opinion they should be kept away from each other till then. The Joker, who I think will be a debuting Ruby Soho, should probably not win since it would be too early to have her lose a title match. Meanwhile, a TV feud between Tay and Britt could be very fun with a good build on TV. Winner: Tay Conti.
[Craig] I really like a battle royale on a big stage, I’ll freely admit they don’t always deserve the time they take but the possible results are engaging. So, I am going to give each wrestler odd of winning:
4-1 Thunder Rosa; it could happen I suppose but her rank means it’d be a waste.
20-1 Nyla Rose; Surely not, especially after the poorly received recent feud!
8-1 Penelope Ford; Michael Sidgwick believes her skillset lends well to a face, I agree. Would be cool.
8-1 Jade Cargill; Very possible but hot-shotting her is a big risk, surely?
12-1 Anna Jay; Straight into such a big feud after injury seems puzzling, unlikely.
3-1 Riho; a Britt Baker/Riho feud would be class and as she has been absent this is a feasible way of getting there.
25-1 The Bunny; There has been little suggestion that The Bunny will be anywhere near Baker, any time soon.
15-1 Big Swole; Swole has been AWOL recently in terms of TV, because of that this would be a stretch.
Evens Tay Conti; the favourite according to the PWMusings consensus. I’d love to see her elevated.
5-1 Hikaru Shida; absent from TV but not from our minds. This would be a good way to get Baker/Shida III.
35-1 Red Velvet; deserving of another big spot soon but this would be too soon.
20-1 Diamante; a fitting heel challenger on TV but very far from the current title picture.
5-1 Emi Sakura; I just have a feeling she may be the dark horse pick.
28-1 Kiera Hogan; it’d be a shocker, but who knows?
50-1 Abadon; the dynamic would be dangerous.
10-1 Leyla Hirsch; recently profiled via NWA so unlikely but a definite future contender.
30-1 KiLynn King; too soon, but KiLynn King has something.
15-1 Jamie Hayter; it’s already been mentioned on air, but this is definitely too soon for Hayter.
50-1 Rebel; This would be an incredibly stupid decision.
49-1 Skye Blue; I have to be honest, this person has not crossed my radar as of yet.
Evens Ruby Soho; I can't decide whether she should get established as a big star immediately or if the division would benefit from her working out with the title scene.
If push comes to shove... Tay Conti wins.
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